This piece was originally published in the Arizona Capitol Times on January 24th. You can find the original piece .

As we embark upon a new decade, it’s hard to miss the technological advances happening all around us. Arizona in 2020 is a state ripe with investment in cutting-edge technology, one where entrepreneurship is thriving and the breakthroughs of tomorrow are happening right in our own backyard.

Arizona’s autonomous vehicle sector is a prime example of how our state has positioned itself to be on the leading edge of the future. After all, it’s where The New York Times said “self-driving cars go to learn.”

While it’s easy to imagine a future zipping around the state in driverless cars, what hasn’t been simple is measuring the actual economic impact of this future for our state. But economist Jim Rounds crunched the numbers and recently released a report for the Arizona Chamber Foundation on the various models and assumptions for Arizona. One thing they all point to? By leading other states, Arizona is poised to reap a disproportionate share of the billions in economic growth and investment this new industry will bring.

Rounds estimates – conservatively – that a $6.1 billion investment in autonomous vehicle research and development would lead to over 75,000 new Arizona jobs across the industry itself and in supporting industries by 2026. To put this in perspective, the growth alone in autonomous vehicle-related work in the next few years will employ more than double the number of Arizonans working in state government.

Much of this growth can be attributed to the way Arizona has uniquely positioned itself among the states to provide a welcoming environment to innovators. For example, thanks to an executive order from Gov. Doug Ducey, the Arizona Commerce Authority now houses the Institute of Automated Mobility, a team that bridges government, innovating companies, and higher education institutions to facilitate the safe development of these technologies.

Higher education is actually a critical part of this consortium. By training students for a high-tech industry poised to grow here at home, Arizona’s colleges and universities are simultaneously meeting the industry’s demand and retaining Arizona’s best and brightest.

We are investing in a workforce designed to grow with the autonomous-vehicle industry, positioning our state as the top location for additional investments by companies working in this space.

In fact, Arizona’s universities are partnering with the firms pioneering this technology to graduate engineers and software developers. That means the students we are investing in at our state universities are staying here, working here, and keeping their economic contributions here in Arizona.

But it’s not just our universities. Community colleges in Phoenix’s East Valley and Pima Community College in Tucson have developed training programs in cyber-security and autonomous truck operation that are training Arizonans directly for high-demand jobs in the workforce.

With more Arizonans taking jobs in this promising, high tech field, and companies like Waymo and Intel – which in 2017 purchased Israel-based autonomous tech firm Mobileye – expanding their research, development, and manufacturing footprints to support that growth, there is also substantial benefit to the state and local governments in tax collection over the next decade.

If we continue to support the growth of autonomous-vehicle technology in Arizona, it will yield significant resources to state and local governments that can be re-invested in priorities like education and public safety. Rounds estimates that an additional $250-350 million in taxes could be collected by 2026 in autonomous-vehicle sector growth alone, using a conservative approach to modeling the calculations. Those are substantial resources for reinvesting in our state’s priorities.

Rounds’ calculations give us a clear vision for Arizona’s economic future if we continue on the path of welcoming the forward-thinking industry. It’s an Arizona with 75,000 more people working in good-paying jobs, an Arizona training our students for the jobs of the future, and an Arizona that’s reaping the benefits of a growing, successful tax base.

But perhaps more important than any of the economic growth that Arizona will gain by being a leader is the potential impact to road safety we stand to gain. Over 800 people die in fatal car crashes in Arizona each year. Autonomous vehicle technology has the potential to bring that number down dramatically by reducing the human error that is the cause of so many accidents. It’s why groups like Mothers Against Drunk Driving and the National Safety Council have partnered with Waymo here in Arizona. We owe it to ourselves in Arizona to welcome technologies that have potential to keep our roads safer and save lives.

As this new analysis methodically predicts, Arizona can anticipate a bright, safe, and economically prosperous future if we continue to welcome innovation and resist overregulation.

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The Arizona Chamber Foundation released a new policy brief Monday that indicates the new decade is likely to see substantial growth in Arizona’s autonomous vehicle industry.

“Economic Impacts of Advancing Arizona’s Competitive Position in the Autonomous Vehicle Industry,” the analysis authored by economist Jim Rounds and his team at Rounds Consulting Group, said Arizona is well positioned to capture a disproportionate percentage of the long-term economic benefits of the industry.

“Autonomous vehicle technology and testing has been growing in Arizona because of a strategic effort by the governor and other state and local lawmakers,” Rounds said. “When new technology is being developed such as AV, those early entries into the development process tend to earn a higher share of future economic activity.”

The national AV industry is expected to grow to $557 billion by 2026, and the automotive and tech sectors will have invested about $61 billion in development by 2023.

Rounds’ analysis also found that Arizona could increase its state and local tax collections by approximately $500 million by 2030, a number he said is conservative.

“We calculated the impact of the autonomous vehicle industry in Arizona using various models and assumptions, and any way you cut it, it’s clear that Arizona’s policies have positioned our state to reap a disproportionate share of the benefit from this growing industry,” Rounds said.

Glenn Hamer, chairman of the Arizona Chamber Foundation, said the data makes it clear that Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and the state Legislature are making a conscious decision to welcome new and growing business into the state, leading to the development of “the most exciting technological advancement in the 21^st century’s third decade.”

“Since 2015 when Gov. Ducey issued an executive order establishing the state’s support for AV technology, research and development, manufacturing and testing have all taken off,” he said. “That doesn’t happen without a regulatory environment that is encouraging this burgeoning sector to get off the ground.”

Arizona is one of just 11 states whose governors have issued executive orders specifically encouraging growth in the AV tech sector.

Ducey issued a second executive order in 2018 updating guidelines to meet technological developments and creating the Institute of Automated Mobility under the Arizona Commerce Authority, a public-private consortium of businesses, higher education institutions and government officials to promote greater collaboration in the AV industry.

According to the analysis, if Arizona companies invest just $6.1 billion in AV-related research and development, it would lead to nearly 40,000 direct new jobs and $4.3 billion in economic output, with another 35,000 new indirect jobs.

“The ideal situation is for the state to be the Southwest hub for not just testing, but for R&D and manufacturing of related products,” Rounds said. “This industry is going to be very large, and even a small share of the economic and fiscal benefits will be sizable.”

Rounds said the return on investment for the AV industry is among the highest he’s ever seen for a policy-related issue.

The policy brief also addressed road safety, a widespread issue in Arizona, where more than 1,000 people die each year due to auto accidents. Automation could dramatically reduce the danger of vehicular travel if used more broadly, according to estimates from national consulting firms.

“As the father of a teen driver and two more who will be behind the wheel very soon, the positive effect this technology has on driver safety can’t be ignored,” Hamer said. “Safer roads, lower insurance costs, and more jobs is a sort of triple crown of transportation public policy.”

To read the full analysis,

Banner photo source: Waymo

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Self-driving truck company TuSimple and Pima Community College announced a new autonomous driving certificate program for truck drivers.

The will teach experienced truck drivers how to operate and work with autonomous trucks in a 12-credit program that can be completed in as little as one semester. The program requires a Class A Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) prior to enrollment, and drivers will build on their existing knowledge.

“Today is another important milestone in the transformation of Pima Community College, as well as the community of Tucson and the greater Pima County and beyond,” said Lee Lambert, chancellor of Pima Community College. “At Pima, we’re not interested in being mediocre; we’re not interested in status quo. We’re interested in major disruption that these technologies I referred to earlier are really driving in every sector of our economy.”

and Pima Community College co-created a program curriculum comprising five classes: Introduction to Autonomous Vehicles, Industrial Safety, Computer Hardware Components, Electrical Systems I, and Transportation and Traffic Management.

TuSimple said it will prioritize hiring graduates of the program for jobs at its Tucson .

“It’s one-of-a-kind, first of its kind — and for the whole industry,” said Robert Brown, director of public affairs for TuSimple. “We hope this is the basis for a program for other companies to use… Arizona is a Mecca for autonomous vehicles, and we hope that this program grows beyond TuSimple and .”

The program — and the self-driving truck industry — is meant to be a “positive disruption,” offering new, more exciting opportunities to drivers rather than eliminating the need for them, Brown said.

“We want drivers to be able to go up-skill themselves, get a better wage, have a better lifestyle and be home with their families every day and every night,” he said.

The program will be offered at Pima Community College in Tucson starting September 2019, with registration opening in August. Pima and TuSimple said they plan to collaborate with other schools to expand the program after it launches.

“We commend Pima Community College for offering this innovative and exciting program that can help address the acute driver shortage,” said Dr. Xiaodi Hou, founder, president and chief technology officer of TuSimple. “The program offers driving professionals a smooth transition into an emerging field that requires different skill sets in addition to existing truck driving knowledge by providing training.”

The that goes into creating autonomous vehicles require advanced degrees, but operating and maintaining the vehicles can be done by skilled technicians, said Tucson Mayor Jonathan Rothschild.

Because of the nature of the new technology, must be created to meet the needs of industry, developing skills specific to emerging technologies, he said.

“When we’re talking to companies, trying to bring companies to this community, one of the things everybody is always concerned about is, ‘Do you have the appropriate workforce?’” Rothschild said. “Well, technology moves so fast now that we can say ‘yes,’ but a year from now the answer could be ‘no,’ unless we have places of higher education that are willing to go out to these companies and say, ‘What do you need? We will get it for you,’ and that’s exactly what Pima’s doing.”

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Source: Waymo

Last year, Uber began testing  self-driving technology in Arizona, rolling out its autonomous Volvo SUVs on the streets for app users to try, sometimes for free. A recent accident led Uber to suspend its self-driving technology testing in the state, although Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi is aiming to bring testing back to all streets by this summer.

Some speculated the incident would be a major setback for the emerging industry, but companies such as Waymo and TuSimple are expanding their presence in the desert.

Last month, Waymo announced it would expand the number of Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans in their fleet starting in late 2018. An additional 62,000 minivans builds upon a , announced in January, to deliver thousands of vehicles to Waymo’s driverless transportation service. The increased fleet will add to their current operation in the Phoenix metro area.

“The Valley’s distinct desert conditions are helping Waymo build the world’s most experienced driver, but it’s also the support from Valley residents, especially those in our early rider program, that is preparing us to launch the world’s first self-driving transportation service later this year,” according to a Waymo spokesperson.

TuSimple is another California-based tech startup that operates in Arizona. The self-driving tech company focuses on developing autonomous systems for the commercial trucking industry. They’re not the only ones eyeing commercial trucking. Recently Tesla and UPS announced their partnership to work on self-driving shipping, and Uber is also testing the waters of self-driving commercial trucks.

Robert Brown, director of public affairs at TuSimple, sees a bright future for the state and the technology.

“We’re not just out there driving for driving’s sake. It’s purpose-based testing,” says Brown of the current testing being done on Highway 10 between Tucson and Phoenix. “We’re working with the ADOT and DPS, and setting up dialogue with local law enforcement to make sure we’re transparent. Once we’re at a point where we like it, we would like to offer this to the public and plan ahead. Our approach has been very open and transparent.”

TuSimple is part of a short list of autonomous commercial truck companies and is hoping to change the image of the technology. While passenger self-driving technology is in its own haze right now, commercial trucking just may be the way for the general public to get back on board.

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The emergence of autonomous vehicle technology along with a rise in ride-sharing services, has brought about new considerations for the City of Chandler. The city recently revised its zoning code, taking into account the effect that autonomous ride-sharing programs will have on the space needed for traditional parking.

Key players such as Waymo, Olli–an autonomous shuttle service owned by Local Motors–and Intel are also making waves in the valley as they begin testing new technologies. The City of Chandler in particular has become an incubator for autonomous vehicles. Olli and Intel, which both have a presence in Chandler, are expected to fully roll out their programs later this year.

Chandler city planners anticipate that over the next two decades, the shift from personal vehicles to advanced car technologies will be significant.

“Autonomous vehicle technology is very exciting,” said David De La Torre, principal planner for the City of Chandler. “Experts predict it will have the same impact on society as when the automobile was first introduced. For Chandler to be one of the first, if not the first, to amend its zoning code really demonstrates that the City of Chandler is a pioneer in paving the way for this new transportation technology and open for business to the autonomous vehicle industry.”

On May 10, the Chandler City Council approved changes to the city’s zoning code inspired by the shift toward autonomous vehicles and ride-sharing programs. The changes will become effective on June 9. Chandler is the first Arizona municipality to amend its zoning code in order to uniquely accommodate autonomous vehicles. The zoning amendment encourages new developments to include designated drop-off and pick-up areas for autonomous vehicles and ride-sharing programs. The inclusion of these zones will allow a project to reduce its required parking by up to 40 percent.

The potential impact of autonomous vehicles and a shift toward a city built to utilize them is certainly appealing to many Chandler residents, especially business owners and developers in the downtown area. A city designed to move autonomous vehicles provides opportunities for more people to visit downtown Chandler safely and efficiently, boosting the already invigorated area. “Regionally this move reinforces Chandler, and Phoenix in general, as the Silicon Valley of the desert,” De La Torre said.

Chandler residents will not see drastic changes right away, but De La Torre said that as people become more dependent on these technologies the changes will ramp up and developers will begin to take advantage of the options available to them through the modernized zoning code. As these changes take place over time, Chandler city planners will continue to conduct parking demand studies to determine how best to adapt to the quickly changing landscape.

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