Arizona, the nation and the world are starting to see some economic recovery on the tails of a global recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.  

Now, keeping that momentum going will rely on two major factors, including the willingness for governments to lend a helping hand to those who need it most, top economic experts said Wednesday during the s annual Economic Outlook 2021 sponsored by Cox Communications. 

The other major factor is how well countries can keep the virus in check, said presenters Elliott Pollack, CEO of Elliott D. Pollack and Company; Matt Stephani, president of Cavanal Hill Investment Management, and Scott Horsley, chief economics correspondent for NPR.

All three spoke about the impact of the virus and what lies ahead for the Phoenix region, the nation and the world. 

Here are some of the key takeaways:

New round of relief is essential for the “have nots”  

The U.S. has had more coronavirus cases per capita than most other countries, but it has been able to weather much of the financial toll because of the federal CARES Act passed in March. 

Through the Act, Congress has provided $3.1 trillion in relief for businesses and individuals, which has carried both the “haves and the have nots” throught the financial turmoil, economist Pollack said. 

But recent gridlock on a new round of relief could upend life for the “have nots,” placing them in a position where they are unable to pay monthly bills, he said. 

“Congress, the House and the Senate, have let politics get in the way of the need of the public and they have essentially muted the benefit from the $3.1 trillion.” 

He and Stephani both worry that Congress likely won’t act until after the election. 

Virus makes forecasting difficult 

The other major factor in recovery is the virus itself, the experts said. 

“In just a matter of months, the coronavirus has spread to every corner of the globe and almost everywhere economic contraction has followed in its wake,” Horsely said. “This is the first time in 150 years so much of the planet has suffered a recession at virtually the same time.”

Countries like China, which has taken “draconian” steps to shut down society to keep the virus at bay, are seeing stronger recovery. China’s movie box office sales, for example, are now almost to where they were pre-pandemic, Horsely said.

But others like Mexico and India that are seeing surges in cases do not have the resources or the willingness to provide stimulus relief. Their future is less certain. 

Personal savings to jump start recovery 

Stephani, who spoke from a national perspective, was optimistic about a fairly quick recovery for the U.S. over the next year and a half.

Americans have piled up record levels of personal savings and money market assets under stay-at-home orders, he said. The nation’s personal savings rate is averaging about 24 percent. Coming into the pandemic, the rate was only around 6 to 7 percent. 

In dollar terms, bank deposits are up $2 trillion from pre-COVID levels, Stephani said. Money market assets have risen from $3 trillion to $4.5 trillion.

If a vaccine or effective treatment arrives within the next year, consumer activity should explode with all that available cash. 

“That is dry powder that is going to come into the economy and when it does, it will move the economic needle,” Stephani said. 

Phoenix metro fastest growing major market 

Meanwhile, the outlook for the Phoenix region is very promising, Pollack said.

For the most part, the recovery of jobs in metro Phoenix has been “miraculous,” he said. Phoenix has recovered more than half the jobs lost when due to the pandemic. 

“While the United States was losing 98 percent of all jobs created between the last recession and February, greater Phoenix only lost 41 percent,” he said.

Many factors are responsible for the region’s healthier outlook, including federal relief from the CARES Act, a thriving economy prior to COVID-19, and Arizona citizens who have been masking up and social distancing to reduce the spread of the virus.  

Millennials and people over 65 will be buying homes 

Moving forward, most industries in the Phoenix region should see full recovery over the next two years. 

Housing will continue to be one of the strongest sectors, in part due to the virus, Pollack said. 

COVID-19 is causing people to want to leave high rents in small apartments in big cities to buy homes in more affordable locations like Arizona. 

Demographics will also benefit the Valley and the state as the two largest population groups, millennials and people over 65, seek to purchase houses over the next decade. 

Prospects for tourism, hospitality, restaurants 

Industries that have been hardest hit, meanwhile, will come back in force once  Americans can fully participate in the economy again, the experts said. 

Prop. 208 tax hike biggest threat to growth

One potential drawback for recovery would be passage of Proposition 208 in Arizona in the upcoming election, Pollack said.

Known as the “Invest in Ed” initiative, it would put the state in the top-10 of the highest income tax states in the nation. Under the initiative, Arizona’s top income tax rate would be raised from 4.5 to 8 percent – almost an 80 percent increase. 

In addition to deterring economic development here, thousands of small businesses that file their taxes under the individual tax code would be impacted. Many might not survive.  

“I’m not saying education doesn’t need more money; I’m saying, this isn’t the way to do it. Besides the inequity, you’re going to hurt economic development,” Pollack said. “We would go from the 15th lowest marginal personal income tax rate in the country to the ninth highest.

“It’s something that would come back to bite us.”

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The Greater Phoenix Chamber (GPC) announced the 2019 ATHENA Award winners last month.

GPC recognized the 2019 ATHENA private sector, public sector and young professional award recipients during the 32nd Annual ATHENA Awards Luncheon Nov. 15.

The ATHENA Awards are named after the Greek goddess of courage and wisdom and is a division of ATHENA International, a nonprofit organization dedicated to creating leadership opportunities for women.

“We are incredibly proud to celebrate an inspiring group of leaders as this year’s recipients of the Greater Phoenix Chamber’s ATHENA Awards,” Todd Sanders, GPC president & CEO, said. “These influential women are dedicated to building a brighter future and ensuring our community remains strong. They embody the best of the Arizona business community and we look forward to seeing how they will carry on the legacy of ATHENA through their work.”

GPC named the following award winners:

• Cindy Dach, CEO of Changing Hands Bookstore — and co-founder of MADE art boutique and the Roosevelt Row arts district — won the ATHENA Businesswoman of the Year Award for the private sector;
• Sherri Collins, executive director of the Arizona Commission for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing, won the ATHENA Businesswoman of the Year Award for the public sector; and
• Reyna Montoya, CEO and founder of Aliento, won the ATHENA Young Professional Award.

Cindy Dach

“The ATHENA Awards empower and connect a network of impactful women who are shaping the future,” said Dach. “As leaders, it is important for all of us to simultaneously link arms and hold out our hands. We must lead with kindness because kindness creates hope. And hope brings us to our next task at hand, to listen, and then ask how can we help?”

GPC said Dach won ATHENA Businesswoman of the Year in the private sector because during her nearly 20 years at Changing Hands Bookstore, she not only set a national standard for successfully operating the “art of being an independent bookstore” but also transformed the business by curating an elite speaker series, fostering community connections and increasing annual sales by $5 million.

Dach also established diverse and innovative revenue streams for her business by “breathing life” into the arts and culture scene of Phoenix as an instrumental player in the creation of Roosevelt Row.

Dach said her advice to women just starting their career is: “Be humble and confident. Listen. And be fearless.”

Sherri Collins

Collins said, “This is a recognition of the hard work I’ve done in the community. I hope that with this recognition that I can be a community partner with everybody to remove barriers and improve [people’s] quality of life.”

As executive director of the Arizona Commission for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing for more than a decade, Collins has been a lifelong advocate for the deaf and hard of hearing and has moved mountains in order to raise awareness for the community.

She also serves as the President of the Board for the National Association of State Agencies of the Deaf and Hard of Hearing. She recognizes herself as the first and only deaf lobbyist in the country, and has championed regulatory changes to improve the lives of individuals who are deaf or hard of hearing.

“The ATHENA Award is a special recognition. And, I’m so honored to have been selected as a candidate. I am just humbled to have been considered for this award. I am so fortunate to have the opportunity to return the favor through my career,” said Collins. “I wish every woman could benefit from the ATHENA Award as I have. The ATHENA network, connecting with women across the valley, and industries. It creates a stronger community across the valley.”

Reyna Montoya

Montoya said continued success means “being able to stay true to your values and being able to share your gifts with others.”

According to GPC, Montoya is a “fierce advocate for justice in her community” and is a dedicated social entrepreneur who founded Aliento, an Arizona community organization that harnesses resources to educate and empower immigrants, in 2016.

Through her work at Aliento, Montoya is redefining what it means to fight for social justice using her experiences as an undocumented student herself to convene communities and develop collaborative solutions and create spaces that support immigrant students and their families.

“As I walk away from this stage, I hope that you remember my story—that you remember the contributions, creativity and humanity of all immigrants,” Montoya said. “I hope that you remember that we have a choice to nurture, to serve, and to lead with love in so much darkness. You have a voice to be a light.”

Montoya was also named on Forbes Magazine’s 2018 edition of its 30 Under 30 list of budding business leaders in the social entrepreneur category.

Dach, Collins and Montoya were chosen from 11 ATHENA finalists.

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The Greater Phoenix Chamber Political Action Committee (GPC PAC) is endorsing 55 candidates for the Arizona Legislature and 4 statewide candidates in the , including Governor Doug Ducey for reelection and Steve Gaynor for Secretary of State.

“Governor Ducey has shown true leadership on business issues since elected governor four years ago,” said Todd Sanders, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Chamber (GPC). “We applaud Governor Ducey for fostering Arizona’s economic growth through sound policy and strategic investments. With Governor Ducey’s influence and guidance, Arizona is once again leading the way on tough issues and is being shown in a positive light on the national stage.”

The GPC PAC closely evaluated the primary election results to determine which candidates’ platforms are most conducive to a robust economy, said PAC Chairman John Moody.

“These candidates understand the importance of maintaining a pro-business environment and support public policies that provide a strong foundation for Arizona businesses to prosper, grow and create new jobs,” Moody said.

The GPC PAC also endorsed Kimberly Yee (R) for Treasurer, Mark Brnovich (R) for Attorney General and Steve Gaynor (R) for Secretary of State.

State Senator Yee was elected in 2010 to serve Arizona’s 20th Legislative District. strong economic growth, low taxes, limited government spending and freedom of choice in education and healthcare.

“Senator Yee has been one of Arizona’s most open lawmakers, listening to and helping implement the business community’s needs during her tenure in the Legislature,” Sanders said. “Senator Yee’s sharp intellect and common sense approach to governing will leave the state’s finances in great hands.”

Brnovich was elected Attorney General in 2014. During his tenure in office, he has demanding huge settlements. Brnovich has expressed disdain for fraudulent charities preying on “Americans’ patriotism and their compassion for our veterans and military,” and the Attorney General’s office passed consumer protection legislation as a result,.

Perhaps most notably, Brnovich announced in May that auto giant as part of a consumer fraud settlement over its diesel emissions scandal, directing $10.5 million to Arizona consumers who had purchased VW-made vehicles and $20 million to the state K-12 education budget.

“General Brnovich has proven to be a stalwart protector of the business community’s interests,” Sanders said. “General Brnovich was instrumental in protecting the business community from frivolous lawsuits filed by serial litigators in the name of disability compliance. Most impressive has been his focus on upholding Arizona’s laws without regard to politics.”

Gaynor is a graduate of Harvard Business School and has spent nearly forty years in the printing businesses. This is Gaynor’s first time seeking elected office.

“The Greater Phoenix Chamber is pleased to endorse Steve Gaynor as Secretary of State,” Sander said. “Mr. Gaynor has proved to be a business leader in Arizona and will bring that expertise with him to the Secretary of State’s Office.”

In August the GPC PAC endorsed Daniel Valenzuela, a nonpartisan city councilman, for mayor of Phoenix.

“While Phoenix voters are very fortunate to have several well-qualified candidates running for Mayor who would all likely serve the city well and move Phoenix forward, Daniel Valenzuela has a unique understanding and vision for the future of our city focusing on growth, innovation and fostering economic development and prosperity, making him the best choice for mayor,” Moody said.

The GPC supports candidates who align with the organization’s mission to generate economic prosperity, Sanders said.

“With a rigorous vetting process and endorsement standard, the Chamber’s PAC continues to support candidates that will be advocates for economic growth,” he said. “We are pleased to endorse these leaders.”

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