The United States House of Representatives approved a federal minimum wage hike last week of $15 an hour by 2025. As the bill heads to the Senate, proponents say the legislation would pull millions of Americans out of poverty.
But opponents and a new federal impact analysis indicate it would pull millions out of work. Small businesses and rural America would suffer most, they said.聽
鈥淎t a time when the economy is expanding, wages are rising above inflation and unemployment is the lowest it鈥檚 been in decades, we should not be considering a job killing, income reducing legislation,鈥 Rep. Ron Wright, (R) said during the floor debate last week. 鈥淭he negative impacts of such a disastrous bill would be felt in high-income urban areas but they would be more severe in low-income rural areas.聽
鈥淓conomic conditions of Navarro, Texas, in my district where the median income is $45,000 are not the same as San Francisco where the median income is more than double.鈥
The bill passed along party lines with Democrats winning, 231-199. Called Raise the Wage Act (HR 582), the legislation calls for incremental rate hikes that would reach $15 per hour by 2025, with automatic increases thereafter.
Dubbed the 鈥淩aise Unemployment Act鈥
House Republicans derided Democrats for failing to address the potential impact on small companies that account for 99.9 percent of businesses in the U.S.聽
They called the bill a 鈥淲ashington one-size-fits-all鈥 mandate and dubbed it the 鈥淩aise Unemployment Act.鈥澛
Instead of helping employ workers, it promises to further increase automation, raise consumer prices, and shut down small companies that rely on entry-level, unskilled and youth workers, they said.
Help and hurt at the same time聽聽
Many pointed to a new analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that estimates as many as 3.7 million jobs would be lost by 2025 if the bill is passed by the Senate, which is unlikely.聽
The shows that most low-wage workers, earnings and family income would increase, which would lift 鈥渟ome families鈥 out of poverty. But other low-wage workers would become jobless, and their family income would fall, in some cases, below the poverty threshold, the report states.
The mandate would also reduce business income and raise prices as higher labor costs were absorbed by business owners and then passed on to consumers, it states.聽
鈥淓veryday Americans鈥 would lose聽聽
Arizona U.S. House Rep. Debbie Lesko (R ) said that the wage hike would hurt 鈥渆veryday Americans.鈥澛
鈥淭he Congressional Budget Office report estimated that this bill could result in a $9 billion dollar net reduction in family income and cost upwards of 3.7 million jobs, including over 23,000 jobs right here in Arizona,鈥 Rep. Lesko said. 鈥淭his bill will be devastating to our booming economy and harm the livelihood of millions of Americans and their families.鈥
Arizona already dealing with multi-year wage hikes聽
Twenty-nine states including Arizona and dozens of communities across the nation already have implemented minimum wage hikes well above the federal $7.25.
In Arizona, restaurants, hotels and other industries that rely on unskilled labor would be among those hardest hit, business advocacy groups said.
Businesses here already 鈥渁re bracing for the final assault鈥 of four years of annual minimum wage hikes approved by voters that culminate in 2020 at $12 per hour, said Chad Heinrich, state director for the National Federation of Independent Business.
鈥淗.R. 582 would more than double the federal minimum wage – exceeding levels already strongly opposed by businesses in Arizona,鈥 Heinrich said. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 absorb more wrong-headed, job-killing policies from Washington while we鈥檙e still living yesterday鈥檚 nightmare.鈥
Economic output would drop by $2 trillion
NFIB鈥檚 Research Center estimates this legislation would cost the American economy 1.6 million jobs and reduce economic output by more than $2 trillion in 2029.
The NFIB estimates adoption of H.R. 582 would result in:
- Approximately 1.6 million fewer jobs in the U.S. in 2029, with more than half of those private sector losses at small businesses
- A cumulative real economic output loss exceeding $2 trillion, including a $980 billion loss to the GDP and $103 billion loss to disposable personal income聽
- A loss of 900,000 jobs from businesses with fewer than 500 employees聽
- A loss of nearly 700,000 jobs at businesses with fewer than 100 employees聽
In Washington, D.C. Thursday, NFIB president and CEO, Juanita Duggan, issued a statement, calling on the Senate to block the bill.聽聽
鈥淭he House dealt a devastating blow to small businesses today, risking record growth, job creation, and already increasing wages. In states and municipalities across the country, a mandated minimum wage hike has consistently led to lost jobs, production, and income, and it must not be replicated on the federal level,鈥 Duggan said.






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